MONITORING VOTING INTENTIONS OVER THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO
MONITORING VOTING INTENTIONS OVER THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO.
Of the 26 candidates officially engaged in the presidential race, 8 clearly stood out in committed campaign activism. This evaluation followed the different candidates in their mobilization capacity, their campaign message and the pitfalls observed on their mobilization tour route.
It appears that two main candidates occupy the top of the heavyweights of the campaign. Moïse Katumbi Chapwe, the candidate of the Ensemble pour la République party whose campaign is punctuated by several incidents provoked by those in power; and Félix Tshisekedi, outgoing president whose campaign is off to a bad start and is stabilizing.
⏺ Moïse Katumbi Chapwe: A formidable and unsinkable candidate, he is running a dazzling electoral campaign with his own means. Having its own air fleet and sufficient resources to coordinate its teams comfortably located throughout the country. Moïse Katumbi is a candidate who has long prepared for the presidential election in the Democratic Republic of Congo through his political and sporting past as well as his multiple charitable actions which have targeted vulnerable categories of Congolese society (hospitals, war displaced persons, sports groups and other victims of disasters. The candidate is also a respected manager benefiting from a very solid media network. His successful campaign tours have immensely drawn unexpected crowds.
⏺ Félix Tshisekedi Tshilombo: President of the Republic in office, he enjoys a niche of political parties that are members of the presidential majority (Sacred Union) led by leaders known in the different provinces and communities of the country. Tshisekedi has the advantage of having immense financial resources and his own campaign logistics. Some of his supporters did not obtain all the campaign resources in time. Tshisekedi is also facing his poor five-year record on the ground Relying on his few flagship projects such as the 145 territories, free education and maternity, the president also showed a certain fatigue inherent to the heavy state responsibilities mixed with electoral campaign priorities.
a. Why will Félix Tshisekedi lose to Moïse Katumbi Chapwe? Republic has multiplied attitudes and actions which have negatively impacted its political popularity:
- The confiscation of the provinces for the benefit of its relatives without taking into account the expectations of the local populations;
- The misappropriation of public funds regularly rewarded by the Head of State in person. accused or convicted collaborators have been released and or returned to office;
- The infantilization of justice which is used at will Justice is unfairly applied to crush the opposition;
- Institutionalized tribalism;
- Mbuji-Mayi's speech.
b. Tshisekedi
- The opponent was martyred by the two successive regimes of Joseph Kabila Kabange and Félix Tshisekedi;
- His sporting leadership through his club Tout-Puissant Mazembe (several times champion of Africa and the DRC);
- Remarkable governor of the rich province of Katanga He was the first authority to effectively conquer the rights of the State in. exploitation of the province's minerals,
- It has several actions visible throughout the country.
I. MOBILIZATION CAPACITIES
1. Fayulu Madidi: 32%
2. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: 17%
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 11%
7. Fayulu Madidi: 45%
2. 84%
3. Mukwege Mukengere: 28%
4. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: 9%
6. CAMPAIGN INCIDENTS
1. Fayulu Madidi: 2% (Rarely victim)
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 92% (Regularly victim with loss of life and injuries among his collaborators. Planes prohibited from arriving in the DRC and collaborators still in prison despite the campaign. Also criticized for the origins of his wife)
3. (Meeting banned in Bukavu before being authorized a few days later).
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 7% (Complaint following the requisition by other candidates of most of the aircraft available in the country. Campaign program disrupted. Blocked in Inongo for lack of aircraft).
5. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: 4% (Victim of criticism in the media. Accused of being in cahoots with the power)
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 4% (Criticized for his program considered philosophical and unrealistic)
7. Sesanga Hipungu: 26% (Victims of regular insults in the media from those close to power)
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 22% (Victim of criticism for the systematic occupation of the Rtnc compared to the other candidates. funds from the Treasury to fuel his campaign).
IV. POPULAR MEMBERSHIP
1. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: 10.5%
6. Kurusini: 8%
7. Sesanga Hipungu: 21%
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 35%
V. SUSPICIONS OF CORRUPTION OF CERTAIN CANDIDATES
1. Fayulu Madidi: His criticisms against his opposition comrades;
2. to be at the service of Westerners;
3. Mukwege Mukengere: Accused of seeking to promote homosexuality;
4. Mutamba Tungunga: Suspected of benefiting from funding from the CENI through the Quaestor of the institution who is a member of his political platform;
5. positions support the argument;
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: Despite his network of operational churches in the country, he is suspected of benefiting from funding from the government;
7. Sesanga Hipungu: Known for his intelligible positions, he is accused of benefiting from funds from the government; the State to the detriment of State agents and civil servants.
VI. ELECTORAL ALLIANCES
Three blocs are emerging:
1. Union Sacrée (The presidential majority) which supports Félix Tshisekedi This bloc brings together more than 300 political parties active in all the country's institutions. Pwanga, President of the National Assembly; Mr. Modeste Bahati Lukwebo, President of the Senate; Mr. Sama Lukonde Kyenge, Prime Minister etc.
2. Congo Ya Makasi (Opposition) who supports Moïse Katumbi Chapwe It brings together four national leaders. DRC and for the stability of the currency He withdrew on November 20, 2023 in favor of Moïse Katumbi Chapwe, candidate in the presidential election also joined candidate number 3 before Jean-Claude Vuemba, president of the Mpcr and great leader of Kongo-Central appeared behind the same candidate. (Ceni), Corneille Nangaa Yobeluo, currently in exile, declared his support for Moïse Katumbi Other announcements of support could be formalized before the end of the electoral campaign.
3. Lamuka (Opposition) who supports Martin Fayulu Madidi. alliance.
VII. PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
The poorly prepared elections of December 20, 2023 revealed some unprecedented political realities:
1 A very high number of political parties (910);
2. 17% of women in the national legislative elections;
- 49,209 in the provincial elections;
3. 98% of candidates who defected from the FCC and converted to the Sacred Union abstain from putting the image of President Tshisekedi on their campaign materials;
4. Almost all members of the presidential family are candidates for the legislative elections;
5. their respective strongholds Case of Minister of Industry Julien Paluku Kahongya, Modeste Bahati Lukwebo and Vital Kamerhe, all close to Félix Tshisekedi whose last meetings were a fiasco in Goma and Tshopo.
6 The highly contested CENI only had the power of Félix Tshisekedi as its defender. gives Moïse Katumbi Chapwe winning in the election of December 20, 2023 with 62% of votes.
The next, Félix Tshisekedi could be unable to win the election given several political weaknesses accumulated throughout his mandate.
However, this conclusion is likely to evolve depending on two realities:
- in the event that Katumbi gains new political support in the opposition, he would improve his electoral popularity rating by increasing his score at the end of the elections;
- in the event that cracks within the Sacred Union benefited candidate Katumbi, his score would improve impressively.
Simaro Ngongo