Monitoring of voting intentions on the first 10 days of electoral campaign in the Democratic Republic of Congo
monitoring voting intentions over the first 10 days of electoral campaign in the Democratic Republic of Congo .
On the 26 candidates officially engaged in the presidential race, 8 were clearly distinguished in a campaign activism. This assessment followed the various candidates in their mobilization capacity, their campaign message and the pitfalls observed on their mobilization tour.
It emerges that two main candidates occupy the top of the heavyweights in the campaign. Moïse Katumbi Chapwe, the party candidate together for the Republic whose campaign is enamelled with several incidents caused by power; And Félix Tshisekedi, outgoing president whose poorly gone campaign is stabilizing.
⏺ Moïse Katumbi Chapwe: formidable and insubmersible candidate, he holds a dazzling electoral campaign with his own means. With a clean air fleet and sufficient resources to coordinate its teams comfortably established throughout the country. Moïse Katumbi is a candidate long prepared for the presidential election in the Democratic Republic of Congo through his political and sporting past as well as his multiple charitable actions which have targeted vulnerable categories of Congolese society (hospitals, displaced war, sports groups and other victims of disasters. The candidate is also a respected manager benefiting from a very solid media network. have immensely drained unexpected crowds. Clean. Tshisekedi also faces his poorly brilliant five -year report on the ground. Based on his few flagship projects such as the 145 territories, free education and maternity, the president also accused a certain fatigue inherent in heavy state charges mixed with electoral campaign priorities.
a. Why will Félix Tshisekedi lose against Moïse Katumbi Chapwe?
The President of the Republic has multiplied attitudes and actions which negatively impacted his political popularity:
- The confiscation of the provinces for the benefit of his relatives without taking into account the expectations of the local populations. The Head of State has destroyed the provincial assemblies and erected governors in small protected monarchs even in their poor governance;
- The characterized megestion of the provinces;
- The diversions of public funds regularly rewarded by the head of state in person. Most of his accused or convicted collaborators have been released and or restarted;
- The infantilization of justice which is instrumentalized as desired. Justice is unfairly applied to crush the opposition;
- Several unrealized promises;
- Institutionalized tribalism;
- The speech of Mbuji-Mayi.
b. Why Moses Katumbi will be ahead of Tshisekedi
- The opponent was martyred by the two successive regimes of Joseph Kabila Kabange and Félix Tshisekedi;
- His sports leadership through his club the Almighty Mazembe (several times African champion and the DRC);
- Remarkable governor of the rich province of Katanga. It was the first authority to effectively conquer the rights of the state in the exploitation of minerals in the province,
- it has several visible actions throughout the country.
I. Mobilization capacities
1. Fayulu Madidi: 32%
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 78%
3. Mukwege Mukengere: 21%
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 7%
5. Muzito Mfumu MPA: 17%
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 11%
7. SESANGA HIPUNGU: 26%
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 49%
II. Campaign logistics capacity
1. Fayulu Madidi: 45%
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 84%
3. Mukwege Mukengere: 28%
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 5%
5. Muzito Mfumu MPA: 9%
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 4%
7. SESANGA HIPUNGU: 17%
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 65%
III. Victims of campaign incidents
1. Fayulu Madidi: 2% (rarely victim)
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 92% (regularly a victim with loss in human lives and injured among his collaborators. Aircraft prohibited from arriving in the DRC and collaborators still in prison despite the campaign. Critique also for the origins of his wife)
3. Mukwege Mukengere: 7% (meeting prohibited in Bukavu before being authorized a few days later).
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 7% (complaint following the requisition by other candidates of most of the aircraft available in the country. Blocked campaign. Blocked in Inongo for lack of plane).
5. Muzito MFUMU MPA: 4% (victim of criticisms on the media. Accused of being of bread with power)
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 4% (criticized for its program deemed philosophical and unrealistic)
7. SESANGA HIPUNGU: 26% (victims of regular media insults on the part of relatives of power)
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 22% (victim of criticisms for the systematic RTNC occupation compared to other candidates. Also criticized to use Treasury funds to feed its campaign).
IV. Popular membership
1. Fayulu Madidi: 32%
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 69%
3. Mukwege Mukengere: 35%
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 3%
5. Muzito MFUMU MPA: 10.5%
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 8%
7. SESAnga HIPUNGU: 21%
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 35%
V. Suspicions of corruption of certain candidates
1. Fayulu Madidi: his criticism against his opposition comrades make his integrity doubt in certain circles;
2. Katumbi Chapwe: power accuses him of being at the service of Westerners;
3. Mukwege Mukengere: accused of seeking to promote homosexuality;
4. Mutamba Tungunga: suspected of benefiting from the funding of the CENI through the quaestor of the institution which is a member of its political platform;
5. Muzito MFUMU MPUM: Several political and social circles suspect an accentuated equity with President Tshisekedi. His latest positions support the argument;
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: Despite his network of operational churches in the country, he is suspected of enjoying financing of power;
7. SESAnga HIPUNGU: known for his intelligible positions, he is suspected of being in connivance with candidate Katumbi;
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: He is accused of benefiting from state funds to the detriment of state agents and officials.
vi. Electoral alliances
Three blocks are emerging:
1. Sacred Union (the presidential majority) which supports Félix Tshisekedi. This block brings together more than 300 active political parties in all the institutions of the country. There are essentially the highest Congolese authorities, including Christophe Mboso Nkodia Pwanga, president of the National Assembly; Mr. Modeste Bahati LUKWEBO, President of the Senate; Mr. SAMA LUKONDE KYEENGE, Prime Minister etc.
2. Congo Ya Makasi (opposition) who supports Moïse Katumbi Chapwe. It brings together around fifty political parties, citizen movements and local NGOs. Four national leaders have decided to support the candidate Katumbi: Augustin Matata Ponyo, a former Prime Minister highly appreciated for the works produced through the DRC and for the stability of the currency. He withdrew on November 20, 2023 in favor of Moïse Katumbi Chapwe; Seth Kikuni Masudi, a presidential candidate also joined candidate number 3 before Jean-Claude Vuemba, president of the MPCR and the great Kongo-Central leader manifests himself behind the same candidate. In Kisangani's stage, the former president of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), Corneille Nangaa Yobeluo, currently in exile, said support for Moïse Katumbi. Other support announcements could be formalized before the end of the electoral campaign.
3. Lamuka (opposition) which supports Martin Fayulu Madidi. Rumors not yet confirmed say that the Nobel Peace Prize Denis Mukwege is in advanced talks with candidate Martin Fayulu Madidi in the perspective of an alliance.
VII. Preliminary conclusions
The poorly prepared elections of December 20, 2023, have revealed some unpublished political realities:
1. A very high number of political parties (910);
2. Very high number of candidates:
- 26 in the presidential election;
- 23,653 candidates were selected, including 17% women in national legislative elections;
- 49.209 in the provincial elections;
3. 98 % of FCC's defective candidates and converted in the Sacred Union refrain from putting the image of President Tshisekedi on their campaign supports;
4. Almost all members of the presidential family are candidates for the legislative elections;
5. Known and highly placed leaders have been disillusioned in their respective strongholds. Case of the Minister of Industry Julien Paluku Kahongya, Modeste Bahati Lukwebo and Vital Kamerhe, all close to Félix Tshisekedi whose last meetings were a fiasco in Goma and Tshopo.
6. The highly contested CENI had only the power of Félix Tshisekedi as a defender.
In its current form, the presidential election campaign in the Democratic Republic of Congo gives Moïse Katumbi Chapwe winning in the election of December 20, 2023 with 62% of votes.
The following, Félix Tshisekedi could be unable to win the election with regard to several political weaknesses accumulated throughout his mandate.
However, this conclusion is likely to evolve according to two realities:
- In case Katumbi has changed new political memberships in the opposition, he would improve his rating of electoral popularity by bringing up his score at the end of the polls;
- In case cracks within the Sacred Union benefited candidate Katumbi, his score would improve impressively.
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