MONITORING VOTING INTENTIONS OVER THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

MONITORING OF VOTING INTENTIONS OVER THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO.

Of the 26 candidates officially engaged in the presidential race, 8 clearly showed stood out in committed campaign activism. This evaluation followed the different candidates in their mobilization capacity, their campaign message and the pitfalls observed on their mobilization tour route.

It appears that two main candidates occupy the top of the heavyweights of the campaign. Moïse Katumbi Chapwe, the candidate of the Ensemble pour la République party whose campaign is punctuated by several incidents provoked by those in power; and Félix Tshisekedi, outgoing president whose campaign is off to a bad start and is stabilizing.

⏺ Moïse Katumbi Chapwe: A formidable and unsinkable candidate, he is running a dazzling electoral campaign with his own means. Having its own air fleet and sufficient resources to coordinate its teams comfortably located throughout the country. Moïse Katumbi is a candidate who has long been prepared for the presidential election in the Democratic Republic of Congo through his political and sporting past as well as his multiple charitable actions which have targeted vulnerable categories of Congolese society (hospitals, war displaced people, sports groups and other victims of the disasters The candidate is also a respected manager benefiting from a very solid media network His successful campaign tours have immensely attracted unexpected crowds. ⏺ Félix Tshisekedi Tshilombo: President of the Republic. function, it enjoys a niche of political parties members of the presidential majority (Union Sacrée) led by leaders known in the different provinces and communities of the country. Tshisekedi has the advantage of having immense financial resources and logistics. own campaign. Some of his supporters had not obtained all the campaign resources in time, which caused the candidate to have a difficult start to the campaign in Kongo - Central and Maniema in particular. Tshisekedi is also facing his poor five-year record on the ground. Relying on his few flagship projects such as the 145 territories, free education and maternity, the president also showed a certain fatigue inherent to the heavy state responsibilities mixed with electoral campaign priorities.

a. Why will Félix Tshisekedi lose to Moïse Katumbi Chapwe?

The President of the Republic has multiplied attitudes and actions which have negatively impacted his political popularity:
- The confiscation of provinces for the benefit of his relatives without taking into account the expectations of local populations. The Head of State annihilated the provincial Assemblies and established the governors as small monarchs protected even in their bad governance;
- The characterized mismanagement of the provinces;
- The misappropriation of public funds is regularly rewarded by the Head of State in person. Most of his accused or convicted collaborators were released and/or returned to office;
- The infantilization of justice which is exploited at will. Justice is unfairly applied to crush the opposition;
- Several unfulfilled promises;
- Institutionalized tribalism;
- Mbuji-Mayi's speech.

b. Why Moïse Katumbi will be ahead of Tshisekedi

- The opponent was martyred by the two successive regimes of Joseph Kabila Kabange and Félix Tshisekedi;
- His sporting leadership through his club Tout-Puissant Mazembe (several times champion of Africa and the DRC);
- Remarkable governor of the rich province of Katanga. He was the first authority to effectively conquer the rights of the State in the exploitation of minerals in the province,
- He has several actions visible throughout the country.

I. MOBILIZATION CAPACITIES

1. Fayulu Madidi: 32%
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 78%
3. Mukwege Mukengere: 21%
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 7%
5. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: 17%
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 11%
7. Sesanga Hipungu: 26%
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 49%

II. CAMPAIGN LOGISTICS CAPACITY

1. Fayulu Madidi: 45%
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 84%
3. Mukwege Mukengere: 28%
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 5%
5. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: 9%
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 4%
7. Sesanga Hipungu: 17%
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 65%

III. VICTIMS OF CAMPAIGN INCIDENTS

1. Fayulu Madidi: 2% (Rarely victim)
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 92% (Regularly a victim with loss of life and injuries among his collaborators. Planes prohibited from arriving in the DRC and collaborators still in prison despite the campaign. Also criticized for the origins of his wife)
3 . Mukwege Mukengere: 7% (Meeting banned in Bukavu before being authorized a few days later).
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 7% (Complaint following the requisition by other candidates of most of the aircraft available in the country. Campaign program disrupted. Blocked in Inongo due to lack of aircraft).
5. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: 4% (Victim of criticism in the media. Accused of being in cahoots with power)
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 4% (Criticized for its program considered philosophical and unrealistic)
7. Sesanga Hipungu: 26% (Victims of regular insults in the media from those close to those in power)
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 22% (Victim of criticism for the systematic occupation of the Rtnc compared to other candidates. Also criticized for using Treasury funds to fuel his campaign).

IV. POPULAR MEMBERSHIP

1. Fayulu Madidi: 32%
2. Katumbi Chapwe: 69%
3. Mukwege Mukengere: 35%
4. Mutamba Tungunga: 3%
5. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: 10.5%
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: 8%
7. Sesanga Hipungu: 21%
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: 35%

V. SUSPICIONS OF CORRUPTION OF CERTAIN CANDIDATES

1. Fayulu Madidi: His criticisms against his opposition comrades raise doubts about his integrity in certain circles;
2. Katumbi Chapwe: The authorities accuse him of being at the service of Westerners;
3. Mukwege Mukengere: Accused of seeking to promote homosexuality;
4. Mutamba Tungunga: Suspected of benefiting from funding from the CENI through the Quaestor of the institution who is a member of its political platform;
5. Muzito Mfumu Mpa: Several political and social circles suspect an accentuated connection with President Tshisekedi. His latest positions support the argument;
6. Ngalasi Kurusini: Despite his network of operational churches in the country, he is suspected of benefiting from government funding;
7. Sesanga Hipungu: Known for his intelligible positions, he is suspected of being in collusion with Candidate Katumbi;
8. Tshisekedi Tshilombo: He is accused of benefiting from state funds to the detriment of state agents and civil servants.

VI. ELECTORAL ALLIANCES

Three blocks are emerging:

1. Union Sacrée (The presidential majority) which supports Félix Tshisekedi. This bloc brings together more than 300 political parties active in all the country's institutions. There we find mainly the highest Congolese authorities including Christophe Mboso Nkodia Pwanga, president of the National Assembly; Mr. Modeste Bahati Lukwebo, President of the Senate; Mr. Sama Lukonde Kyenge, Prime Minister etc.

2. Congo Ya Makasi (Opposition) which supports Moïse Katumbi Chapwe. It brings together around fifty political parties, citizen movements and local NGOs. Four national leaders have decided to support the Katumbi candidate: Augustin Matata Ponyo, former prime minister highly appreciated for the works carried out across the DRC and for the stability of the currency. He withdrew on November 20, 2023 in favor of Moïse Katumbi Chapwe; Seth Kikuni Masudi, candidate for the presidential election also joined candidate number 3 before Jean-Claude Vuemba, president of the Mpcr and great leader of Kongo-Central came forward behind the same candidate. At the Kisangani stage, the former president of the Independent National Electoral Commission (Ceni), Corneille Nangaa Yobeluo, currently in exile, declared his support for Moïse Katumbi. Other announcements of support could be formalized before the end of the electoral campaign.

3. Lamuka (Opposition) who supports Martin Fayulu Madidi. Unconfirmed rumors claim that Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege is in advanced talks with candidate Martin Fayulu Madidi with the prospect of an alliance.

VII. PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

The poorly prepared elections of December 20, 2023 revealed some unprecedented political realities:
1. A very high number of political parties (910);
2. Very high number of candidates:
- 26 in the presidential election;
- 23,653 candidates were selected, including 17% women in the national legislative elections;
- 49,209 in provincial elections;

3. 98% of candidates who defected from the FCC and converted to Union Sacrée refrain from putting the image of President Tshisekedi on their campaign materials;
4. Almost all members of the presidential family are candidates for the legislative elections;
5. Known and highly placed leaders have been disillusioned in their respective strongholds. Case of Minister of Industry Julien Paluku Kahongya, Modeste Bahati Lukwebo and Vital Kamerhe, all close to Félix Tshisekedi whose last meetings were a fiasco in Goma and Tshopo.
6. The highly contested CENI only had the power of Félix Tshisekedi as defender.

In its current form, the presidential electoral campaign in the Democratic Republic of Congo gives Moïse Katumbi Chapwe the winner in the election of December 20, 2023 with 62% of the vote.

The next one, Félix Tshisekedi could be unable to win the election given several political weaknesses accumulated throughout his mandate.

However, this conclusion is likely to evolve depending on two realities:
- in the event that Katumbi gains new political support in the opposition, he would improve his electoral popularity rating by bringing the increases its score at the end of the elections;
- in the event that cracks within the Sacred Union benefited candidate Katumbi, his score would improve impressively.

Simaro Ngongo